13 December
2024
Total global trade is likely to reach a new record of $33 trillion in 2024, thanks to easing inflation and a boom in trade in services, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The forecast is an increase of US$1 trillion compared to the last UNCTAD update, thanks to steady growth. The total volume of world trade in goods slowed down a bit last year, but rose again thanks to high demand for imports in the developed countries of the world. Consumer technology and apparel were particularly strong, reflecting buying in high-income countries (and front-loading by importers looking to stock up ahead of new US tariffs next year). Trade in services also grew by about seven percent, with the boom in this category accounting for about half of the forecast increase ($0.5 trillion).
Meanwhile, commodity categories important to developing countries fared worse, with energy trade down seven percent year-to-date and metals trade down three percent.
Looking ahead, UNCTAD sees strong momentum for trade through 2025, with caveats. It predicts that the next Trump administration's tariff plans "could disrupt global value chains and affect key trading partners," especially countries with large positive trade balances with the United States, such as China, India, Vietnam and Germany.
"Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, undermining trade, investment and economic growth," UNCTAD warned.
Other possible downside risks may include applicable tariffs on U.S. goods; growing subsidies for domestic industry and climate restrictions on imports in Europe; and signs of a slowdown, including falling container freight rates.