The full-scale war and the closure of Ukrainian airspace for civil aviation in 2022 posed unprecedented challenges to the air logistics market. However, the industry has not only survived, but also adapted, using European hubs, digital tools and new routes.
European hubs: a new logistics reality
The closure of Ukrainian skies has forced companies to rebuild their supply chains. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in 2022 the volume of air cargo in Ukraine fell by 80%, but already in 2023 the market began to recover thanks to transit through European airports. Currently, the main flow of cargo goes through Warsaw (Chopin Airport, 35% of the total volume), Frankfurt (25%) and Krakow (15%). From there, goods are transported by road to Ukraine. This, of course, extends delivery times - sometimes by several days - but ensures the stability of logistics chains.
For example, Warsaw airport has become a key hub for humanitarian and medical cargo, as it has a developed infrastructure and convenient connections with Ukraine. Frankfurt, in turn, attracts companies that work with valuable or urgent cargo. , thanks to powerful warehouse complexes.
Smaller hubs, such as Rzeszow, Bucharest and Budapest, attract customers with lower storage tariffs (10-20% cheaper than in Frankfurt) and faster customs clearance. For example, due to lower tariffs and fast clearance, smaller hubs can be attractive for transporting perishable goods or cargo with lower margins.
Road transit from these hubs to Ukraine adds 1-3 days to delivery, but provides stability. For example, the Warsaw-Lviv route takes an average of 24-36 hours. Many companies successfully apply cargo consolidation, which allows customers to save 15-25% of costs compared to individual shipments. For example, UNI-LAMAN GROUP offers such services, optimizing delivery processes for its customers.
Cargo flow structure
The demand for air transportation remains high due to its speed and reliability. Even now, there is a consistently high demand for air transportation for the delivery of urgent and valuable cargo.
In 2024, according to industry reports, the cargo structure looked like this:
o Medical and humanitarian cargo (45% of the volume): medicines, vaccines, medical equipment. For example, the delivery of ventilators from the USA via Warsaw takes 5-7 days.
o Military logistics (30%): spare parts for equipment, drones, specialized equipment. These cargoes have the highest priority, therefore they are delivered mainly by direct flights, without using transit airports.
o Express delivery for e-commerce (15%): parcels from international marketplaces such as TEMU or AliExpress. This segment grew by 20% in 2023 due to the demand for consumer goods.
o Export (10%): agricultural products (grain, oil), industrial equipment. For example, Ukrainian companies export transformers to the EU via Rzeszów airport.
Wartime Challenges
Aviation logistics faces a number of obstacles:
o Fuel costs: a 30% increase in aviation fuel prices in 2023-2024 has increased transportation tariffs.
o Customs procedures: instability in regulations makes it difficult to clear cargo, especially during peak periods.
o Staff shortage: up to 20% of logistics specialists have gone abroad or changed their profession.
Despite this, companies are finding solutions. For example, using less busy airports, such as Katowice, allows you to reduce costs by 10-15%. Cargo consolidation is also growing in popularity, reducing costs for small and medium-sized businesses by 20-30%. Many companies, including ours, offer consolidation services, providing savings without losing speed of delivery. In addition, the war has accelerated the implementation of digital solutions. According to logistics market analysts, by 2024, 60% of companies working with air cargo will use online booking and tracking platforms. This trend is expected to continue to grow. This allows customers to monitor the movement of cargo in real time, which is especially important for urgent deliveries such as medical equipment. Automated warehouse systems also reduce cargo processing time - on average by 25-30% compared to manual processes. This increases transparency and helps avoid delays, which is critical for humanitarian and military cargo.
Looking to the future
After the victory, Ukraine's air logistics has every chance of becoming a regional leader. Rebuilding airports such as Boryspil (damages are estimated at $2 billion) and creating new logistics centers will be priorities. The return of international airlines such as Lufthansa Cargo or DHL Aviation will revive the market. Integration into European aviation networks through agreements with the EU, such as Open Skies, will open access to common standards and markets.
According to forecasts, by 2030, the volume of air cargo transportation in Ukraine may reach the pre-war level of 150 thousand tons per year. Companies that are already investing in digitalization and partnerships with European hubs will have a competitive advantage. It is also worth considering potential risks, such as geopolitical instability in the region and the pace of economic recovery.