The meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Putin, among other things, further undermined the influence of international sanctions, which had previously seemed to be quite conditionally effective. Moreover, we are not talking only about sanctions against Russia itself - we are talking about international sanctions in general.
For now, the United States is maintaining current sanctions against the Russian Federation and does not rule out new ones, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. And European leaders are considering a new package of sanctions against Putin.
However, how consistent will America be in the issue of sanctions?
Sensing the weakness of his opponent
Apparently, Putin is counting on something else. On the day of his meeting with Trump, he signed a decree that opened the possibility for the American oil company Exxon to return shares in the Sakhalin-1 project, which is not subject to direct US sanctions on Russian energy.
Exxon, as the operator of the project, previously had a 30% stake in it, but after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, it gave up its stake and lost $4.6 billion.
According to Reuters, in 2022, Putin by his decree appointed a subsidiary of Rosneft as the new operator, thus resolving the issue of foreign investors' property rights.
Putin's new decree stipulates that if foreign shareholders want to return their shares, they must "take measures to support the lifting of Western sanctions." And also - to conclude contracts for the supply of foreign equipment for the project and transfer funds to the accounts of the Sakhalin-1 project.
Some in India have already decided that "there is no more logic in Trump's secondary tariffs", and therefore the "secondary sanctions" should also be abolished.
Sanctions regime under threat of collapse
"The Trump-Putin meeting adds a geopolitical dimension. Although officially focused on "strategic stability", it inevitably raised the question of whether the sanctions policy can be adjusted - through selective application or renewed strengthening," Lucia Agodina Malerba, who specializes in the analysis of financial crimes and is a compliance specialist, wrote on social media.
Head of the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Andriy Klymenko predicts the actual collapse of the international sanctions regime. He notes that against the backdrop of the growing "chaos of the name "TrumpPutin" there is a rejection of the rules that have been followed for decades by default." And this is already being seen in various areas.
"In maritime transport, this is clearly and clearly felt. The same is already felt and will be intensified in compliance with American sanctions," he says.
The maritime industry understands perfectly well that the world is divided into competitive blocs - one led by the US and its allies, the other - with China and Russia. And the Global South is increasingly playing both sides and trading with sanctioned states.
Lloyd's List writes that sanctions "impose a"The clear consensus in liberal democracies is that Russia should be punished for its invasion of Ukraine and that the world would be better off without Iran's nuclear program," the publication says.
The sanctions are supported mostly in Europe and North America. And the global majority is not a liberal democracy. China is more than happy to buy cheaper oil from Russia while selling it weapons at full price and maintaining warm relations with Iran, Lloyd's List notes.
"Shadow Fleet" is Growing
The shipping industry recently estimated that the growth rate of the so-called "shadow fleet" is about 30 ships per month. And in half a year, the number of oil tankers has increased by 200 units. According to the brokerage company BRS, it currently stands at 1,140 units with a combined deadweight of 127.4 million tons. In January of this year, the "shadow fleet" included 930 tankers with a total deadweight of 109.6 million tons.
About 78% of this fleet, 886 vessels, are already under sanctions due to ties to the Russian "Sovcomflot", the Iranian company NITC or the Venezuelan PDVSA, etc.
At the same time, it should be noted that, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the share of tankers from the G7+ countries in the transportation of Russian crude oil has increased from 36% to 55%. And if in January they provided 17%, then in July - already 42%.
But the sanctions have not been able to fundamentally undermine the Russian economy, and there is little evidence that a return to the status quo until 2016 will have a significant impact on Iran, writes Lloyd's List.
Confusing rules and lack of control
"More and more countries are following Beijing's lead. Shipowners domiciled in BRICS countries and countries seeking to join BRICS can easily ignore Western recommendations," the publication says.
"Instead, their Western counterparts are left with an increasingly confusing and contradictory set of regulations. Why are Western shipowners and insurers suffering losses while Asian competitors are making money in this area?", - asks the publication.
The extended introduction of sanctions packages is clearly irritating shipowners and other market participants. In addition, shipowners and insurers in Europe must monitor secondary US sanctions and a capricious Trump.
"From next month, regulations regarding the Russian oil price cap will diverge somewhat between the EU and the UK, and noticeably between these parties and the US. Therefore, there is a risk that carriers and P&I can be fined solely for these incompatibilities," Lloyd's List draws attention.
"If Western governments tie the hands of shipowners, then at least they can establish clear, consistent and agreed rules," the publication says.
In recent decades, sanctions have become a key tool of US foreign policy - and a key element of responses to crises and conflicts.
However, one can often hear the opinion that the future of geopolitics lies not in rigid isolationism, but in pragmatism, which will be guided by governments.
At the same time, the EU sanctions regime "does not have such a powerful structure as the American Office of Foreign Assets Control until recently," notes Andriy Klymenko. In fact, European countries that check ship documents in the Baltic Sea are quite limited in their powers. The European Union checks the availability of insurance, the registration of the ship, but even the detention of outright violators - short-lived. In addition, the "shadow fleet" traditionally includes old tankers that transport Russian oil or petroleum products. Therefore, in order to make the sanctions weapon effective, it is necessary to create "sanctions coalitions of the determined," Klymenko is convinced.