The German Ministry of Transport and Construction has published the latest forecasts for the transport industry. They make a forecast for the next three years and speak eloquently about the current crisis.
Let me start with specific figures. This is the total volume of road freight transport in Germany, including all domestic transport, except for coastal transport. For the period 2019-2024, these are actual statistics, and for 2025-2028, future forecasts are given.
2019: 3,758.7 million tons;
2020: 3,656.7 million tons;
2021: not included in the report;
2022: 3,642.6 million tons;
2023: 3,420.5 million tons;
2024: 3,343.0 million tons;
2025: 3,332.6 million tons;
2028: 3,477.9 million tons.
The above figures clearly indicate that the transport industry has been going through a very difficult period since 2019. Between 2019 and 2024, the volume of road freight transport has been steadily decreasing. For example, in 2022/2023 it was a decrease of 6.1 percent, and in 2023/2024 it was a decrease of 2.3 percent. 2025 is likely to bring another recession, this time, fortunately minimal, estimated at only 0.3 percent. The authors of the report explain this entire negative situation by the consumer crisis in society, as well as the lack of investment in construction.
What does Germany predict for the next three years? According to government experts, neither consumption nor investment in construction will get worse. Therefore, it is expected that by 2028, the volume of road freight transport in Germany will finally be higher than today. This implies an increase of about 1.4 percent compared to the forecasts for 2025, which in practice means a return to the transport situation of 2023.