According to the European Commission, EU countries must annually invest more than 1,080 billion euros to meet climate requirements and achieve energy independence. These investments also include funds for the recovery of Ukraine.
In a strategic foresight report published this year, the European Commission presented the main risks and opportunities related to the future of the EU. The main challenges until 2050 remain, in particular, the transformation of the climate, which is especially important for the transport industry in connection with changes in the energy sector. In addition, according to the authors of the report, maintaining competitiveness in the economy and standard of living, as well as social and political cohesion of the EU, remains a priority task.
According to the Polish Institute of Economics (PIE), to achieve the goals of the European Green Deal, REPowerEU and the Net Zero Industrial Act, investments in the EU of EUR 631.5 billion per year will be required. This is more than three times the current EU budget of 186.6 billion euros for 2023, and is about 8 percent. general budget of all member states and the EU.
Therefore, member state funds and private investment will play an important role in financing the transformation. Investments in the amount of 125 billion euros per year will be required to fill the digital gap, and about 38.4 billion euros per year will cost financing of the 10-year recovery plan of Ukraine," the economists report.
Scenarios of "green" development of the EU
The Commission presented 4 scenarios for the development of the EU for 2023-2050, depending on the level of cooperation and involvement of member states in the goals of energy transformation:
• "Eco states" - possible under the condition of cooperation and deep involvement in the transformation, would preserve the leading role of the member states.
• Optimistic "Green business boom" - the scenario involves using the chance to develop sustainable technologies using market mechanisms.
• Pessimistic "Local Ecoworld" - describes the deep climate, social and economic crisis of the EU, caused by low involvement in the transformation, which leads to a change of social attitudes from below.
• "Greening through the crisis" - the scenario indicates that in case of deepening of the global political and climate crisis, the answer to the challenges may be the deepening of the integration of the EU in the direction of the federal system.
Just transformation, active investment and fiscal policy, democratic participation and global cooperation should be the answer to the challenges that the Commission believes EU countries will have to face.
Ukraine will also receive funding
The aspect of European Union investments is important for the logistics industry and the entire economy of Ukraine. In its long-term vision, the European Commission takes into account the plan to restore the economy of Ukraine, destroyed by the military actions of Russia.
According to the draft, Ukraine will receive 38.4 billion euros from the European Union annually for 10 years to restore the destroyed economy, as well as improve the safety and quality of life of its citizens. Within the framework of these funds, Ukraine will expand the integration of its market with European markets and deepen economic cooperation.
In March 2023, the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations estimated that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine would be 383 billion euros. The analysis includes an estimate of the losses suffered for a year - from the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to the first anniversary of the war on February 24, 2023. The recovery time is calculated for 10 years.
The report shows that direct damage to construction and infrastructure amounts to more than $135 billion in the most affected sectors: housing (37 percent), transportation (26 percent), energy (8 percent), trade and industry (8 percent). and agriculture. (6 percent). Transport and logistics are among the sectors with the largest increase in direct loss since the first analysis (September 2022).