21 November
2024
What can be done against the background of the tactics of the aggressor country aimed at limiting the work of the Ukrainian maritime corridor?
Depriving Ukraine of access to the sea, and thus leaving it without maritime trade, is an element of the Russian strategy in the current war. And there were attempts to limit our capabilities even before the start of a full-scale invasion. Nevertheless, Ukraine was able to ensure the operation of the sea corridor to the ports of Great Odesa. And here a great credit goes to the Armed Forces, which eventually began to inflict crushing blows on the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Of course, such things cannot help but annoy the aggressor. The autumn targeted missile strikes on domestic ports and the ships located there were perceived by many as evidence that the aggressor country wants to make Ukrainian sea exports impossible. If not by total destruction, then by intimidation of shipowners, increasing the cost of logistics, and, accordingly, the loss of competitiveness on the world market. However, the work of the sea corridor continues. But what to do next, if the situation worsens again?
Port protection is a priority
"Despite Russia's regular shelling of Ukrainian infrastructure, including civilian ships and granaries, Ukraine continues to be the guarantor of the world's food security," Oleksiy Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for Development of Ukraine - Minister of Community and Territorial Development, said on October 22. His visit to Odessa was a reaction to the new tactics of the Russians regarding the Ukrainian Black Sea corridor. At the same time, the minister said that despite the Russian attacks, 86 more ships intended to enter Ukrainian deep-sea ports. So, it's good that there was an operational response to the situation even then. The only question is whether the steps being taken are enough.
"During the visit to Odesa, a meeting was held to ensure the stable functioning of a key element of our infrastructure - the Ukrainian maritime corridor... The priority is the protection of critical infrastructure, in particular the organization of work and coordination of actions to protect coastal facilities and port water areas. We are now making every effort to ensure reliable protection of ports and, at the same time, increase the volume of exports," commented Deputy Minister of Community and Territorial Development Timur Tkachenko.
"According to the results of the mission, we are strengthening defense measures in each port. We are implementing additional actions that will increase the level of defense capability and security," adds his boss, Oleksiy Kuleba. For obvious reasons, specific measures to protect ports were not announced.
But in Great Britain they were more specific. The government of this country has announced that, amid increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in the Black Sea, an additional £120 million (over $155 million) will be allocated to fund a maritime coalition to purchase new drones and radars for Ukraine. Britain is currently looking for partners to co-finance these supplies.
Dear partners
Is it possible to stop the actions of the aggressor in a more radical way, here and now? The answer suggests itself - hit back.
"I believe that it is necessary to strike Russian tankers. We have already attacked a tanker once. It was the first and last time. But after that, the intensity of strikes on Odesa, including the port, decreased. Then everything returned to the way it was. A ballistic missile hit Odessa today, killing 8 people. The oil and gas industry is Putin's weakest point by the weakest," commented Oleksiy Goncharenko, People's Deputy of the "European Solidarity" faction, to the Central Committee of the Central Committee of Ukraine.
"There is only one recipe to deal with this, every vessel that comes with oil from the Russian Federation must be either arrested or struck," Interlegal partner Artem Skorobagatov wrote earlier on Facebook, commenting on the Russian strike with the use of cluster munitions on the port of Chornomorsk during the loading of a container ship there .
We will remind that it was after the successful Ukrainian attacks on the amphibious ship "Olenegorsky Hornyak" in the port of Novorossiysk, and then on the Russian oil tanker near the Kerch Strait, that the Black Sea corridor was launched from the ports of Ukraine. Therefore, the argument of strength traditionally remains the only one understandable for Russians.
Successful attacks on Russian warships and boats, which the Ukrainian military and intelligence carried out earlier, indicate that it will not be difficult to damage a tanker with Russian oil. But then why are the Ukrainian "cannons" silent?
Perhaps the answer should be sought from our Western partners. It is possible that, as in the case of the attacks on Russian refineries, somewhere on Capitol Hill, the idea of harming ships with Russian cargo is not very favorable. After all, for example, American oil corporations have undisguised interests in the Black Sea region.
Thus, Chevron and Exxon Mobil participate in oil production in Kazakhstan, which is then exported through the Russian port of Novorossiysk. "That is, Russia strictly controls the oil flow of American companies from Kazakhstan. You want to preserve ityour profits, American oil guys? Then act in such a way that it will be good for you and us, because otherwise we will close the oil tap. Exxon's corporate report clearly states: "…if Russia takes countermeasures in response to existing sanctions for its military actions in Ukraine, it is possible that the transportation of Kazakh oil through the KPC pipeline could be interrupted, curtailed, temporarily suspended or otherwise restricted. In such in this case, the Corporation may experience a loss of cash flows of an indefinite duration," Mykhailo, the president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", told earlier potter
"Chevron" is not too worried about possible "Russian revenge". It is much easier for him to solve the issue through a chain of his people and lobbyists in Washington than to diversify the export routes of 30 million tons of extracted oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russia," the expert added.
So, whether Ukraine will retaliate obviously depends either on the consent of the "partners" or on when the leadership of our country and the military will get impatient.
And so far diplomacy?
It is clear that Ukraine, as a victim of the aggressor, is trying to wage war according to certain rules, and attacks on enemy commercial ships are a last resort. Hitting the navy, yes. In particular, on November 6, GUR drones attacked a naval base in Dagestan for the first time. But it is still not a commercial fleet. Therefore, at first, diplomacy comes to the fore.
As one of the experts of the transport market told TTS, a year ago the issue was raised that a certain international monitoring group should operate in the Black Sea ports of our country, which would record all Russian shelling of the port infrastructure and the damage caused by them. And now, finally, this topic began to sound at the official level.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andriy Sybiga held talks with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Finland, and the Permanent Secretary of State of Iceland. At this meeting, Andriy Sybiga reported that Ukraine had officially appealed to the International Maritime Organization with a call to urgently send an international monitoring mission to the ports of Great Odesa against the background of intensified Russian terror.
"Ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea is our common goal... We must stop the aggressor, show the unity of the international community in opposing his barbarism, and record every crime," the minister said.
It is clear that this alone will not be enough. Comprehensive measures are needed. The TCS appealed to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with a request to tell what other steps domestic diplomacy plans to take to ensure sustainable maritime exports.
The press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine replied that the ministry constantly informs international partners about national sanctions restrictions, including those imposed on Russian maritime and logistics companies, as well as on individuals and legal entities involved in their activities.
"According to the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also raises the issue before the countries of the sanctions coalition about the introduction of similar measures. These sanctions mostly include the blocking of assets, a ban on financing and commercial cooperation with sanctioned entities associated with Russia, which significantly weakens its ability to conduct maritime operations," the ministry informs in response to the request of the Central Technical Service.
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is actively working to inform partners about sanctions circumvention schemes through the so-called "shadow fleet" of Russia, emphasizing the importance of sanctioning Russian oil and gas tankers in order to prevent their access to international ports and insurance services," the ministry's press service added.
And they assured that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in constant communication with international partners, coordinating efforts to block financial companies that serve the "shadow fleet", as well as persons involved in its operation. In particular, the issue of the need to authorize the captains of tankers participating in circumvention schemes is being worked out.
Currently, the intensive shelling of the port infrastructure of Ukraine has stopped (however, the shelling of Odesa continues). And if Russia hoped to intimidate shipowners and businesses and significantly influence Ukrainian exports, it did not achieve this goal. The Administration of Seaports of Ukraine reported that in October 2024, 8 million tons of cargo passed through the seaports of Ukraine, which is 60% more than last year. The industry says: there are and will be shipowners who are ready to enter the ports of Ukraine and, in general, countries where military operations are ongoing. All the same, the business calculates the risks and is in no hurry to reorient to other routes purely because of shelling of ports.
Why the terror of ports and shipping stopped so quickly, we can only guess. If it was resolved diplomatically, then clearly not by the steps that are being talked about at the official level. Probably, there were "signals" at another level, including the work of Ukrainian special services, or certain agreements between American partnerswith their Russian "friends". In any case, the worst expectations have not yet come true, attacks on ports are not carried out "as per the shuttle bus schedule".
In informal conversations in the maritime industry, they say that if the situation worsens again, Ukraine will go for a "mirror response". Let even this not be approved by the partners or condemned by someone from the high stands.
After all, regardless of the reservations of Western partners (if they really exist), Ukraine has every right to act at sea in its national interests. All the more so since it is now recorded in the updated Maritime Strategy signed by President Zelensky. The Strategy states that "terrorist activities of the Russian Federation affect the interests of the maritime industry and inland water transport of Ukraine", and therefore one of the state's goals in ensuring maritime security is "effective countermeasures against aggression and adequate response to threats to the maritime security of Ukraine, their elimination or minimization". .